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G20 meeting boosts confidence

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Time: 2018-12-05 10:25 Source: Unknown Author: Unknown Read: 983 times

In the domestic market, the commodities in the black, non-ferrous and energy and chemical sectors have generally risen sharply. As of the close of the 3rd trading day, the Mandarin Commodity Index, which is a comprehensive domestic commodity trend, rose 1.09% to 151.37 points. , An increase of 1.78%.

Among the main contracts, coke topped the list of major commodity contracts, rising by 5.49%, crude oil by 3.95%, coking coal and iron ore by 3.79% and 3.44%, manganese and silicon by 3.48%, and Shanghai zinc by 3.82%. Among them, coking coal, coke, hot coil and other commodities hit an intraday limit.

In the international market, crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other commodities also showed a rebound. As of 16:30 on December 3, the main contract for NYMEX crude oil futures in New York rose 5.34% to $ 53.43 / barrel; the main contract for British Brent crude oil rose more than 5%, with the offer above $ 62 / barrel.

In the industry's opinion, the trigger of the commodity rebound was that the G20 meeting passed the confidence to the market. Jingchuan, deputy general manager and chief economist of CUHK Futures, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that a series of recent weak economic data has put pressure on the market. The G20 meeting was relatively positive. Commodity prices ushered in a repair market after a previous overdraft decline.

At the same time, Jingchuan believes that due to the global impact of the G20 meeting, there was a certain rebound in commodities in all sectors on the 3rd. Next, commodities will show a trend of differentiation according to their fundamentals. Among them, the performance of globally priced products (such as colored products) will be stronger than that of China's independently priced products (such as black products).

Gao Shang, the head of Haitong Futures Securities Research, also told the Shanghai Securities Journal that the positive results obtained at the G20 meeting will inject a strong boost into the large commodity market in the short term. In the medium to long term, commodities will still return to fundamentals. Among them, there is limited room for further decline in oil prices. At present, global oil consumption has entered the turning point of the off-peak season. It is expected that oil prices will bottom out in 2019.

Regarding international oil prices, current market players are focusing on the upcoming OPEC meeting this week, and it is expected that oil-producing countries may decide to reduce supply.

As for the black line, according to the latest statistics of "My Steel Network", on December 3, the domestic steel market price rebounded sharply, and the transaction volume was obviously heavy. Last week, billet rose 150 yuan / ton cumulatively, and on the 3rd it rose another 100 yuan to 3330 yuan / ton.

"In November, ordinary billet plunged by 900 yuan / ton, and the national average rebar price fell by more than 700 yuan / ton. The former has lost money, the latter has only a small profit, and steel prices have entered a staged bottom." My Steel Network Analysis Said Shen Yibing.

Chen Bingkun, a black analyst of Minmetals Jingyi Futures, also believes that black products have entered the bottom-up stage in early December. Among them, coils are expected to become the first black products to bottom out.

For non-ferrous commodities, Gao Shang believes that under the current economic situation at home and abroad, the possibility of China continuing to leverage the economy through infrastructure construction is not ruled out, so rebar will be relatively optimistic in 2019; the trend of copper mainly depends on the global economy. Insufficient growth momentum, copper futures may be under pressure in the future and will remain volatile in 2019; due to strong supply and demand in the aluminum market, aluminum prices will be more favorable.

Guangzhou Futures Nonferrous Metals analyst Li Jun said that although the international macro has eased somewhat, copper downstream demand is weak, the supply side is abundant, and the short-term supply-demand contradiction is not outstanding, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. The zinc market is currently in the off-season. It is difficult for the demand side to significantly increase the price of zinc, and there is still downward pressure on the market outlook.

(Responsible editor: admin)

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